We catch a spry hit in January ( or was it just a few days of rainwater ? ) , but it seems like the “ disk - break El Niño Monster , ” aka“Godzilla , ” as strike by some experts , has been a semi - nonstarter since then . So , does this week ’s rainfall mean that it ’s finally here for veridical ? Or did El Niño truly start before ? Is it more than just , y’know , “ it ’s raining " ? We talked to scientist and show reports and article and even crack open almanac to regain answer to all the El Niño questions you ’ve been too embarrassed to ask .
So, WTF is El Niño?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) , El Niño is part of a gnarly atmospheric condition pattern that happens irregularly in the easterly tropical Pacific every two to seven years . Nicholas Pinter , a geosciences professor at UC Davis who hosted last year’sEl Niño elevation , explained it like this : “ El Niño start with ( and really is defined as ) unusually warm ocean water in the tropic Pacific Ocean . This warm water then has various impacts on the ocean - air organisation . Most importantly , it reduces or overthrow regional winding over the tropical Pacific , changing them from E - to - west to west - to - east . ”
The result is pretty much abnormal and erratic conditions , significance , in a nutshell , way more rain than we ’re used to in LA . And with it , come morebad drivers , too .
Is El Niño only here in California?
No , it ’s pretty much planetary . Pinter said that the change of mind of regional current of air “ add wet and increase precipitation to the western glide of North America and South America ; conversely Australia and Southeast Asia see reduced rainfall , drought , and wildfires . ”
Why is it named El Niño?
Much to our dismay , it is not named afterthis wrestler(RIP Chris Farley ) . Pinter told us El Niño conditions “ bring in other issue including changes in Pacific Ocean currents that can for example keep down fish populations and fish catches . ” Turns out , somefishermen in Peruback in the 1800s note this weird weather happening around Christmas every year . So , they named it El Niño , which stand for “ little boy ” in Spanish or “ Christ kid . ”
How long will it last?
Just like Ricky Martin and his not - so - memorableMenudo bandmates , not all El Niños are produce equal . El Niños typically last for 9 - 12 month but somehave lasted 3 - 4 years . The long El Niño on recordback in the 90s lasted for five years . Anupdated forecastby NOAA say that this El Niño has an 80 percentage chance of lasting into early springiness 2016 ( like , right now ! ! ! ) , which means even Presidential hopeful Trump ca n’t build up a wall to barricade it .
Is it still happening?
Yes . According to NOAA , El Niño is underwayand remains strong . Pinter of UC Davis say , “ Those warm “ El Niño ” conditions are still there , but waning . ” He confirmed that “ it ’s not unusual for much of the season ’s precipitation to come in March , but it does make you enquire what ’s happening with the clime organisation that the secondly large El Niño ever delivered us such a mixed motion picture . southerly CA has had a really disappointing winter . hoi polloi speak about the “ atmospheric river , ” but I cerebrate of it more as an “ atmospherical garden hosiery ” – as in , with no one holding it . It can shoot up or down , and you either get arrive at with a lot of water or not . ” There ’s a gag in there somewhere , but I ca n’t think of anything other than , dammit , can we please get hit with a bunch of rain already ?
So, how much rain will we get?
Nobody really knows . Susan Buchanan , National Weather Service spokeswoman , told us theprecipitation prognosis for January - Marchpredicts above - normal precipitation for much of the country , include all of California . NOAA predicts that California will get 35 to 50 pct above normal total of pelting . Sounds kind - of like a well affair , except … well , just take on .
Does it mean the drought is over?
Nope . fit in toNOAA , a strong El Niño will ease the drought conditions but it will not end them . Put it this way : the normal amount of rain in LA isapproximately 15 in per year . In the preceding four years , LA has only torment up 32 inches entire when it should have been closer to 60 inches full ! Ted Johnson , a hydrogeologist with The Water Replenishment District of Southern California told theSan Gabriel Valley Tribunethat it will taketwo to three years of above - normal rain to get out of the drought . NASA break down its satellite data ( of course they did ; they ’re NASA ! ) and announced thatit would take 11 TRILLION gallons of waterto end California ’s drouth . Sounds uncheerful , good ? Just do your part with water preservation and nullify getting your name added tothis list of drought offenders , aka jackasses .
Is it good or bad for surfers to be in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño?
surfer patently have it well during El Niño . In thisLA Timesstory , Bill Patzert , climatologist for NASA ’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge , said past El Niños have brought wintertime that go down in surf history , noting " it was one slap-up solidification after another , ” though since this one ’s been less - warm than expected , results may variegate . Still , Bodhi , wherever you are , thiscouldbe your 50 year tempest !
Anything else I should know about El Niño?
Yes . We prefer him to his crazy ex - girlfriendLa Niña– the opposite form of El Niño – which could hit us by next wintertime or even this declivity , according to NWS spokeswoman Buchanan . Historically La Niña ( which mean “ little girl ” in Spanish ) brings reduce precipitation to the West . This entail drier than normal conditions in Southern California – in spades no bueno for this on-going drought . Buchanan order us theirlatest outlook reportforecasts a 40 percent chance of La Niña and a 46 percent opportunity of Neutral conditions for next wintertime ( Neutral means no El Niño or La Niña ) . In grammatical case your mind has been gasconade OR perhaps La Niña has you a bit confused like me , take a lookat these NOAA diagramsorthis NOAA blog post .
So, a quick recap:
El Niño is still here , though it ’s getting weak , not strong . And , it will not terminate the drought .
Jennifer Bui/Thrillist
Flickr/andrewfhart
