There ’s something a niggling number disappointing about being an American living abroad during a presidential election year … it ’s sort of like not going home for the holiday , even though you know that your antiblack uncle will end up contend with your cousin ( who ’s a vegan ) , and that by the end of it , everyone will terminate up resenting the entire rest of the family . As traumatic as these things can be , it still palpate sad to be left out .
Fortunately , it ’s been a rattling raging dumpster fire of an election so far , and most masses I run across here in London have one question : what the hell is going on over there?So here , beloved people of the UK , are the most important things you need to know about the US presidential election to understand what ’s been going down across the pool .
This isn’t even thereal electionyet
I sleep together , right ? It ’s been 12 - and - a - one-half calendar month sincethe first candidate officially throw his lid into the doughnut for the 2016 backwash , and Americans are still not even unaired to electing a president . But just so we ’re clear : almost all of the coverage you see now is about the two main political parties in the US just choosing theirnominee . The general election officially come out deep this summer , after the parties have their national pattern ( think Comic - Con traverse with Wrestlemania … but with worse celebrity ) .
The nominees are chosen by party delegates, not the people
There are many elements of American election that look like commonwealth in action , but really are n’t , and the primary are a big one . The primary mightresembleactual elections , but I chance it more useful to think of them as a less - interesting variant of theCones of Dunshire(complete withsilly hats ) . The rules aren’tcompletelyarbitrary , but the easiest elbow room to handle the whole billet is to just take the rules at face value . Why did Iowa and New Hampshire go first ? Why do some states have primary quill and others have caucuses ? There are solution to these questions , but they wo n’t serve you well understand what ’s going on . Just roll with it .
The first thing to accept blindly is that primary voters are n’t take a campaigner , they ’re choosing the delegate their state is going to send to each party ’s national conventions over the summer , and each state has unlike rules for how their master translates into delegate . For example , Florida ’s Republican Party gives all of its delegates to whomever won the most votes ( in this case , Donald Trump , who won 100 % of Florida ’s delegate with only 46 % of the vote ) . Meanwhile , Pennsylvania gives 17 of its delegate proportionately to the statewide winner … while the other 54 are chosen in each congressional district , and can vote however they desire at the convening .
All by way of tell : prospect who induce the most votes ≠ nominee . If you want to see who ’s ahead , do n’t reckon the popular vote , count the delegate .
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The actual nomination won’t happen until the conventions
Normally , at this point in the election cycle per second , either a nominee has won enough pledged delegates ( 50 % of the full number of delegate + one ) that they will have clinched the nomination … or everyone else has dropped out of the raceway . Either path , months before the magnanimous party conventions that take place in the summer , the parties have a fairly good musical theme of who their nominee is going to be . But of class , this year is so far from normal that even Bear Grylls could n’t find his way back to it . The Democrats are having a real psyche - searching about the future of their party , and the Republicans are essentially having a Charlie Sheen - level nuclear meltdown .
There have been exceptions to the normal run of things in the last century , but in the modern elemental era , neither party has had what ’s called a " contested convention " ( sometimes called a " broker rule " ) , which is a scenario in which none of the candidate are capable to get a majority of delegates on the first ballot . When this happens , " superdelegates " ( the Republicans call them " uncommitted delegate , " but that ’s super - tedious ) can toy a all important office in deciding the nominee . These are party dignitaries like former Chief Executive , members of Congress , and governor , and many of them have already publicly declared their support for a candidate ( most delegate count let in superdelegates ) . Of course , nothing force these delegates to vote the way they ’ve said they will .
So basically , this year ’s conventions are going to be B - A - N - A - N - A - S. In a normal year , the conventions terminate up feel like four - day infomercial for the chosen campaigner , and while there are also argumentation about the party platform and sometimessome capital delivery , on the whole they ’re known for being a bit inevitable . But this year …
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The Democrats are still too close to call
Hillary Clinton was supposed to glide into the nominating address like a fiddling kid wearing sock on a recently wax floor . But when no other serious Democratic contender was forthcoming , Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders ( who prior to this subspecies was technically an Independent , not a penis of the Democratic Party ) switch his chapeau into the ring . allow ’s face at their profiles :
ClintonFormer experience : Senator from New York , Secretary of StateGreatest forcefulness : knotty as nails , and has a reputation for take diddley doneGreatest weakness : she ’s been in politics a farseeing time , and has the baggage that comes with that , including ties to big potbelly . Also , being a lady probably is n’t helping thing ( like the UK , America has n’t exactly kick sexism yet ) .
Currently the popular frontrunner , Clinton was originally seen as take the nominating address for granted , and did n’t anticipate the rotatory appetite her opposite is presently satisfying , especially in immature Democrats . Still , at the second , she has more pop vote , delegates , AND superdelegates underpin her . Plus , Kate McKinnon iskilling itin herSNL spoofsof her .
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SandersFormer experience : Senator , Congressman from Vermont ; Mayor of Burlington , VT.Greatest strength : grassroots populist enthusiasm and fiscal supportGreatest failing : publicly place as a socialist , which in America is still probably not cool
When Obama was first elected , his hunting expedition guggle with the excitement of a grassroots motion , which drew on the collaborative power of community organizing and the industrious support of youth civilisation . Despite Clinton ’s close working relationship with the current US President , Sanders seems to have captured the muscularity of Obama ’s crusade . Still , he ’s in a tricky place in the delegate math : unless he set forth winning big in some of the final states , he wo n’t be capable to stop her at the formula ( his deprivation in New York last week was a big blow to his chances ) . no matter , his front in the race has brought Hillary to the leftfield on several central upshot . incentive : his SNL spoofs are courtesy ofLarry David .
The Republican Party is kind of freaking out
For all the nail - sting going on on the leftfield , there ’s a mess of running around and screaming on the right . The Republicans ( often called the GOP or the Grand Old Party ) have split between populist and governing body lines , and nobody really knows how it ’s go to pan out . The last men standing :
Donald TrumpFormer experience : substantial estate impresario , man of affairs , The Apprenticehost , putter of names on thingsGreatest military posture : mouthGreatest weakness : sassing
The Donald was pooh - poohed by nearly everyone in the pundit class when he first foretell his candidacy , and now they ’ve all had to eat their words because he ’s the frontrunner . The only Americans whoaren’tstunned by this are the ones who are voting for him , and the party organisation is delirious to forestall him from getting nominated ; the GOP are terrify he ’ll hurt the Senators and representative who are also up for election in November . It ’s unclear if he ’ll get enough delegate before the conventionality to clinch the nominating address , but if he does n’t , the Party will plausibly utilize every parliamentary trick up their arm to stop him ( superdelegates to the deliverance ! ) .
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Ted CruzFormer experience : Senator from TexasGreatest durability : isn’t Donald TrumpGreatest failing : some count him just as spoilt … or worse
While Donald Trump may get most of the attention for holding untypical military position and making eyebrow - raising statements , Cruz is almost every bit dislike by the GOP organization ( not to mention most left - leaning elector ) . The son of a Baptist preacher , Cruz believes his candidacy is a mission from God , and if elect , need to countermand nationalized wellness care and work up a wall on the border with Mexico .
John KasichFormer experience : Governor of Ohio , CongressmanGreatest enduringness : appears saneGreatest Weakness : who is he , again ?
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Once the conventions are over, the real fight begins
Coming out of the conventions , two authoritative decisions should be made for each political party : who their candidate is , and who that nominee has picked as a running Ilex paraguariensis for Vice President . This may seem insignificant , but VP nominees can often have a adult ( and uncanny ) essence on elections . ( Case in point : Sarah Palin . ) In fact , the VP is often really important as a member of the campaign ; but once in office , there ’s not a whole lot for the VP to do . The most celebrated summation of this comes from VP John Nance Gardner , who account the Vice Presidency as"not being worth a pail of fond piss . "
Once the VP is in place , however , you ’ll see the candidates disseminate out across the country to try and get votes . you may have a bun in the oven flash campaign advertizing from both parties , blast on the other party ( ditto mark ) … fundamentally , it ’ll be a real bloodbath .
Ah yes, the polls, or: how the math nerds have won
Ever since he started his siteFiveThirtyEight.comin March 2008 , Nate Silver has transmute the agency that the great unwashed recollect about poll parrot and the presidential election . Using fancy mathematics that I do n’t hazard to understand , Silver was able to allow startlingly accurate predictions both for the national popular vote AND the Electoral College … not to mention correctly predicting every Senate race . If you care knowing what ’s die on before it bechance ( and are n’t afraid ofangering the idol ) , pay attention to FiveThirtyEight ; it ’s especially adept at helping sort out utile polls from useless ones . For instance : any headspring - to - head match-up you see now about who will succeed in November are more or less rubbish .
When to pay attention and when to look away
In case you do n’t want the election taking over your brainspace , here are the key times to take a peek at what ’s going on to stay in the loop :
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Charlie Beckerman has seen all four Sorkin seasons of The West Winglike , nine times , which is almost as sound as a political scientific discipline degree , ripe ? When he ’s not break away down presidential elections , he ’s often breaking down twenty-fourth - century style over atFashion It So , the cyberspace ’s preeminentStar Trek : The Next Generationfashion blog .
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